There are a lot of news articles these days about artificial intelligence (AI) and how it will become ubiquitous in our daily lives, even more so than it is already. You may not think of services such as Siri or Alexaas AI but that is exactly what they are, using a concept referred to as machine learning to remember what you like, don’t like, and are interested in. In short, they learn everything about you, so they can ultimately anticipate what you need and take proactive steps to make it happen. The accepted definition of AI is a machine that mimics cognitive functions that humans associate with other human minds, such as learning and problem solving. AI is perceptive of its’ environment and takes actions that maximize its’ chance of successfully achieving its’ goals.
The main point of contention in recent articles among scientists, technology experts, and everyday citizens is whether AI will improve or destroy society and even humanity. Some visionaries, such as Elon Musk and the late Stephen Hawking, have warned that AI will ultimately lead to the end of humanity. As Musk puts it, it is “summoning the demon.” Musk was an early investor in DeepMind, the AI division of Alphabet, parent of Google, but eventually changed course and founded OpenAI, a billion-dollar nonprofit company with a mission to develop safer artificial intelligence. On the other hand, futurists such as Andrew Ng, co-founder of Google Brainand online learning platform Coursera, among other achievements likens AI and its’ impact on when electricity was first introduced. “Just as electricity transformed almost everything 100 years ago, today I actually have a hard time thinking of an industry that I don’t think AI will transform in the next several years,” Ng said.
Positive real-world examples of the impact of AI will be found in fields such as healthcare, where AI can free up caregivers, doctors, and staff to focus on more critical tasks. Some specific examples include:
· AI-assisted Robotic Surgery – robots can analyze data from pre-op medical records to guide a surgeon’s instrument during surgery, which can lead to a 21% reduction in a patient’s hospital stay.
· Image Analysis – AI can analyze 3D scans up to 1,000 times faster than what is possible today, which can provide near real-time and critical input for surgeons who are operating.
· Virtual Nursing Assistants – From interacting with patients to directing patients to the most effective care setting, these can save the healthcare industry $20 billion annually. Since virtual nurses are available 24/7, they can answer questions, monitor patients and provide quick answers.
In addition to AI applications for our phones, in the home, and at work, we could list many more applications that are beyond the scope of this post.
On the other side of AI, the recent announcement of AI-based computer models that study society, such as the Modeling Religion Project, are at least somewhat disconcerting. Based on real data, they are populated with virtual societies (with virtual people called “agents”) to measure the impact of adding or removing conditions related to education, economic security, religiosity, and so on. The Future of Religion and Secular Transitions (FOREST) model, for example, found that people tend to secularize when four factors are present:
· Existential security (money and food)
· Personal freedom (free to choose whether you believe or not)
· Pluralism (have a welcoming attitude to diversity)
· Education (training in sciences and humanities)
The implication of this model is the U.S. has been slower to secularize than western Europe due to limitation of the effects of education as the result of keeping it at the local level. The larger conclusion I draw from what these models hope to achieve is the ability to test out political policies and social programs to see what real impact they can have if implemented.
In other words, governments will eventually be able to manipulate societies will a high degree of accuracy as they tweak their models to ensure they get the desired result. If the goal is to make a society more or less religious, as several of these models view as a key attribute, the powers that be could turn up religion to the point of a terrorist state or dial it down to where China is today. 90% of China’s citizens regard themselves as either atheists or not religious, which is surprising to many people.
A discussion on AI would not be complete without mention of the concept of singularity: where we’ll reach a point where machines, through advanced AI, will become smarter than humans. Ray Kurzweil, a well-known MIT-educated visionary in the field of AI and machine learning, author of a book entitled The Age of Intelligent Machines, and regarded as “the father of artificial intelligence” says singularity is 30 years away, arriving in 2045. Others say it may happen even sooner.
Here is something to really think about – imagine a cheap little device that isn’t just smarter than humans, it can compute as much data as all human brains taken together. That may be our reality in just a few decades, and it will lead to a seismic change in our human existence.
These are exciting times we live in; I hope we will all be around long enough to see how it all plays out.
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