The fifth generation of wireless technology, simply called "5G", is being rolled out across the U.S. (and the world) and will be a transformational game-changer in many ways. Beyond high-speed data capability on our smartphones, it offers home and business consumers the bandwidth for applications and services that can be both less costly and a better value overall. Additionally, it will be a source of renewed revenue generation for the phone manufacturers and carriers alike as well as the application developers that partake in the “app economy” that began with the arrival of the first 3G smartphones a decade or so ago.
However, if you haven’t already become confused, all 5G is not alike. There are multiple “bands” or ranges of spectrum that offer widely different speeds and quality of coverage, and the marketing pitches the carriers are advertising isn’t helping.
To start at the highest speed but lowest inherent coverage, there is millimeter wave (or mmWave), which is what you will hear primarily from Verizon as it’s “5G Ultra Wideband” network. The confusing part is Apple also uses that term in the iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max, and they are not related at all. It is important to consider that mmWave offers great speed, over 1 Gbps in some cases, but it does not penetrate well through obstacles, which means a lot of mini-repeaters similar to wireless access points connected all over the neighborhood. To make things more complicated, each of these access points also has to be connected to a wired backbone and is a primary reason it will take time to deploy on a large scale.
T-Mobile also uses mmWave in combination with their low-band 5G for improved coverage, and markets their network as "the only nationwide 5G network". While faster than 4G, it can’t match a pure mmWave speed test but the good news is it is already accessible to over 200 million customers with their December 2019 5G launch. T-Mobile is simply calling their network “5G” which in my opinion makes absolute sense in this world of over-marketing every little distinction. Once they close the merger with Sprint, they will be able to take advantage of all three flavors of spectrum: mmWave, low-, and mid-bands.
With Sprint, this carrier has struggled against the Verizon and T-Mobile networks for quite a while, and I can say I have personally experienced it as a personal and business customer. They have decent coverage in metropolitan areas, but head out of town and the coverage becomes wildly inconsistent. Sprint did get an early start on rolling out 5G with its mid-band “True Mobile 5G” network. While faster than the low-band of T-Mobile, it doesn’t have the coverage it needs to be a serious competitor in my opinion, although once T-Mobile closes the merger around April 1st and absorbs the Sprint mid-band spectrum into their network, you then have a formidable blend of spectrum that is sure to make their customers very happy.
I haven’t yet mentioned AT&T, because in typical AT&T fashion, they have the absolutely most confusing range of “5G” designations out there. While they use a variety of all three bands, their phones will show either “5GE”, “5G”, or “5G Plus” depending on which bands it is using, and 5GE (or 5G Evolution) is not actually 5G at all. I have some friends that are satisfied with AT&T, but in my personal experience, they tend to over-promise and under-deliver more often than not.
While it appears T-Mobile and AT&T offer the most comprehensive range of spectrum at the moment, the FCC is expected to auction additional mid-band spectrum in mid-2020, which could tilt the scale toward any of the big three carriers.
If I could advise anyone on carrier selection, first of all, test out the coverage quality in your area before committing to a contract, and then focus on the customer experience. I have enjoyed a great experience with both Sprint and T-Mobile customer service, with T-Mobile getting the edge and brownie points for going above and beyond every single time.
On the other hand, my experience with Verizon has been one of slight arrogance in knowing they generally provide great coverage, and as such believe they can dictate the terms of the relationship. AT&T, ever since the CRM implementation fiasco of about a decade ago, has never fully recovered from having terrible customer service, and I haven’t personally experienced any signs of improvement. To this day, I get a collection of sales emails from AT&T that ask me to take advantage of installed fiber in my area…when I already contracted with AT&T to install fiber in my area, they installed it, and it’s in the building. I contact them to tell them I already have their fiber, they promise to update their records, and a week later, I get the same email from someone else. That’s AT&T in a nutshell, so take it for what it’s worth.
5G business networks will also be a game-changer. Just think of having broadband wireless available to deploy technology practically anywhere – healthcare, field services, construction, and so many more segments will benefit.
5G will also drive more robust apps for mobile and remote locations and drive the internet of things (IoT) side of technology. Bandwidth has always been a limiting factor in mobile application development. With that constraint removed, it opens the possibility to have a full desktop experience over-the-air for about any type of application. Remember when switch technology in our data centers went from 10 to 100 Mbps, and then to Gigabit? File transfers went from hours to minutes and then to seconds. Latency became a non-issue. We now stream HD video across networks like it is perfectly normal, when a decade or so ago, that would have severely congested an average network. The same evolution in application development will happen in the wireless side of our networks as 5G becomes more ubiquitous.
All of this innovation will be fueled by product development, which will drive revenue growth for many companies. For the investors out there, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the key players in this segment, especially Apple and Samsung, their competitors, and suppliers. New phone models will require new semiconductors after all.
I hope this blog answered your questions to some extent and was informative.
Best, David
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